We touched on Roy Oswalt’s trade availability in the 1st podcast, and as the season rolls along, Oswalt watch will only intensify. Whether the Tigers should acquire him is a topic we will likely debate at another time. In this post, I will just cover the likelihood of the trade happening, without offering an opinion on whether or not it would be prudent.
Simply put, it won’t happen. To Detroit anyway.
Reason #1: Ed Wade just doesn’t sell.
Most people will tell you that it makes all sorts of sense to deal Roy Oswalt right now. He’s on the other side of 30, he’s nearing the end of his deal, and the Astros aren’t winning anything soon. Their farm system could really use the help. Oswalt wants to be sent away. So, it’s all lining up, right?
Not if you’re Ed Wade.
Wade started his tenure as Astros GM in December of 2007. In both of the years he’s presided over the Astros, the team has been pretty mediocre and far out of playoff contention. In 09, they lost 88 games. In 08, they finished 11 games out of first. Both years would have been fine times to sell to stock the farm system, with plenty of candidates to be sent away. But during 2008, he made deals to acquire, not send away, major league talent. In 2009, he made one midseason trade the entire season: a minor move to send Ivan Rodriguez out in the midst of an awful season for a minor leaguer of little consequence (RP Matt Nevarez).
The 2009 season is an interesting one. At the time, I wasn’t surprised that they opted to stand pat during the 09 deadline, surmising that they didn’t have any realistic sell pieces. Looking back, I’m not so sure about that. Jose Valverde certainly became a pitcher in demand. Wandy Rodriguez, a very good pitcher in his own right, was hitting arbitration, and a pro-active organization could’ve gotten a king’s ransom by dealing him while he still had a couple years of arbitration control. Did they approach Oswalt about a trade last year? He wasn’t pitching as well last year, but there wasn’t a word suggesting that they had even considered it. Miguel Tejada could have gotten something if Wade had been willing to absorb some of the contract. It’s not a great list of players for sale, but the Astros have lacked minor league depth and carried a mediocre big league club in his few years in charge. The only major leaguer of any consequence that he’s traded out of Houston was Brad Lidge near the start of his tenure, whom he immediately replaced with Jose Valverde.
This doesn’t mean that he won’t change his mind now. Oswalt is the first Astro to go public with trade demands, and the team is worse now than it was the last two years. However, it’s clear that Wade is not a fan of selling, and if he has to trade his ace, he’s going to demand a high price. In Philadelphia, Wade sold on Scott Rolen and Curt Schilling in separate deals and received very little for his trouble. There’s no doubt in my mind that Wade is wary of repeating those mistakes, which may drive the price out of realistic range for anyone, much less the Tigers.
Reason #2: Tigers’ Finances.
The Tigers didn’t make a play for any free agents until after the Granderson trade had freed up about 7 million dollars. With the payroll carefully budgeted for Verlander’s extension, Valverde’s signing, and Damon’s signing, it’s hard to imagine that Detroit has too much money kicking around. Keep in mind, they declined to offer Placido Polanco arbitration simply because they were prepared to take the risk of paying him if he accepted. That might have been 5-7 million extra if they still had him around.
Roy Oswalt is due about 10 million the rest of this season, and 16 million next season.
Next season is less of a big deal considering the money that will be available, but that’s still 16 million dollars in a season for a team that already has 2 $20 mil players on the payroll. If Oswalt was on next year’s payroll, that would put about $75 mil between 5 players: Oswalt, Cabrera, Verlander, Ordonez, and Guillen. With so many players making near the minimum (Sizemore, Avila, Jackson, Boesch, Scherzer, Porcello, Zumaya, Perry), they would be able to absorb his salary next season, but that would be $16 million that they wouldn’t have available to fill holes at short, 3rd, left field, or to sign other pitchers. The Tigers are set up nicely with their elite players locked up for big money and young players locked up for small money, but they aren’t really in a position to take on any more large yearly figures until Guillen and Ordonez are off the books after 2011.
Reason #3: It’s not as good of a fit as you think.
Justin Verlander won the strikeout crown last year, and is universally recognized as one of the top-notch pitchers in the AL. Rick Porcello was a solid major league starter during his age 20 season, and he isn’t leaving the rotation soon. Jeremy Bonderman just rode a fantastic month of May to a season FIP of 2.99, a career best. Max Scherzer struck out 14 batters last weekend.
It’s hard to imagine that the Tigers brass would look at those kind of results from Bonderman and Scherzer, compare those to what is already established with Verlander and Porcello, and feel compelled to burn big time prospects and big time money for another starting pitcher. If Jacob Turner, Casey Crosby, and/or $15 million dollars is going to be pumped into improving the 2010 Tigers, it would be awfully strange to see the team pass on filling holes #1 (shortstop), #2 (catcher), #3 (second base), and #4 (third base), to spend all that on hole #5 (5th starter).
I’ve been surprised by trades before, but there’s just a lot of evidence in the background to contradict any prediction that the Tigers would acquire Oswalt. I will say that Verlander, Oswalt, Scherzer, Bonderman, and Porcello would possibly be the best Tigers rotation since 1968, and that would be pretty neat. And Adam Everett is kind of like Ray Oyler…
